Opinion polling for the United States House of Representatives elections, 2008

This article provides a collection of scientific, state-wide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the United States of America House of Representatives elections, 2008.

Contents 1 Opinion polling 1.1 Alabama 1.2 Alaska 1.3 Arizona 1.4 California 1.5 Colorado 1.6 Connecticut 1.7 Delaware 1.8 Florida 1.9 Idaho 1.10 Illinois 1.11 Indiana 1.12 Iowa 1.13 Kansas 1.14 Kentucky 1.15 Louisiana 1.16 Maine 1.17 Maryland 1.18 Michigan 1.19 Minnesota 1.20 Mississippi 1.21 Missouri 1.22 Montana 1.23 Nebraska 1.24 Nevada 1.25 New Hampshire 1.26 New Jersey 1.27 New Mexico 1.28 New York 1.29 North Carolina 1.30 Ohio 1.31 Oregon 1.32 Pennsylvania 1.33 South Carolina 1.34 South Dakota 1.35 Tennessee 1.36 Texas 1.37 Utah 1.38 Virginia 1.39 Washington 1.40 West Virginia 1.41 Wisconsin 1.42 Wyoming 1.43 Notes 1.44 Seats to Watch 1.45 House Predictions 1.46 External links

Opinion polling

Alabama

2nd District
Incumbent: Terry Everett(R)-Retiring

Winner-Bobby Bright (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Bobby Bright	Republican: Jay Love
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 20-22, 2008	45%	47%
Anzalone Lizst (D)	October 5-7, 2008	46%	45%
Survey USA	August 26-28, 2008	39%	56%
Capital Survey Research Center	August 6-7, 2008	47%	37%
Anzalone Liszt (D)	August 3-6, 2008	50%	40%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	July 21-22, 2008	39%	41%
Anzalone Liszt (D)	October 2-4, 2007	46%	27%

3rd District
Incumbent: Mike Rogers(R)

Winner-Mike Rogers (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Joshua Segall	Republican: Mike Rogers
Capital Survey Research Center	September 30-October 1, 2008	36%	45%
Capital Survey Research Center	August 19-21, 2008	33%	54%

5th District§
Incumbent: Bud Cramer(D)-Retiring

Winner-Parker Griffith (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Parker Griffith	Republican: Wayne Parker
Anzalone Lizst (D)	October 12-14, 2008	46%	38%
Capital Survey Research Center	August 19-21, 2008	45%	40%
Capital Survey Research Center	April 1, 2008	48%	32%

Alaska

At Large District
Incumbent: Don Young(R)

Winner-Don Young (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Ethan Berkowitz	Republican: Don Young
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 14-16, 2008	50%	44%
Ivan Moore Research	September 20-22, 2008	49%	44%
Fairleigh Dickinson University	September 17-21, 2008	47%	41%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 15-17, 2008	53%	39%
Ivan Moore Research	August 30-September 2, 2008	54%	37%
Ivan Moore Research	August 9-12, 2008	51%	41%
Ivan Moore Research	July 18-22, 2008	52%	37%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	July 14-16, 2008	51%	40%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	May 12-14, 2008	50%	40%
Hellenthal & Associates	May 6-10, 2008	58%	38%
Craciun Research Group (D)	October 27-November 2, 2007	50%	35%

Arizona

3rd District
Incumbent: John Shadegg(R)

Winner-John Shadegg (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Bob Lord	Republican: John Shadegg
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 20-22, 2008	40%	50%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 6-8, 2008	39%	48%
Anzalone Lizst (D)	October 6-8, 2008	45%	44%

5th District
Incumbent: Harry Mitchell(D)

Winner-Harry Mitchell (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Harry Mitchell	Republican: David Schweikert
Bennett, Petts & Normington (D)	March 9-11, 2008	50%	24%

8th District
Incumbent: Gabrielle Giffords(D)

Winner-Gabrielle Giffords (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Gabrielle Giffords	Republican: Tim Bee
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner (D)	June 18-22, 2008	59%	35%
Arizona Opinion (R)	May 12-23, 2008	47%	40%
Summit Group (R)	December 3-4, 2007	36%	30%

California

4th District
Incumbent: John Doolittle(R)-retiring

Winner-Tom McClintock (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Charlie Brown	Republican: Tom McClintock
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 20-22, 2008	48%	42%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 23-25, 2008	46%	41%
Val Smith (R)	September 22-24, 2008	39%	47%
Beneson Strategy Group (D)	August 21-24, 2008	43%	41%
Beneson Strategy Group (D)	May 14-15, 2008	42%	40%

11th District
Incumbent: Jerry McNerney(D)

Winner-Jerry McNerney (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Jerry McNerney	Republican: Dean Andal
Survey USA	October 14-15, 2008	52%	41%

26th District
Incumbent: David Dreier(R)

Winner-David Dreier (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Russ Warner	Republican: David Dreier
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D)	July 15-16, 2008	37%	49%

50th District
Incumbent: Brian Bilbray(R)

Winner-Brian Bilbray (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Nick Liebham	Republican: Brian Bilbray	Libertarian: Wayne Dunlap
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner (D)	October 13-14, 2008	42%	44%	5%
Tarrance Group (R)	October 12-13, 2008	35%	48%

Colorado

4th District§
Incumbent: Marilyn Musgrave(R)

Winner-Betsy Markey (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Betsy Markey	Republican: Marilyn Musgrave
Grove Insight (D)	September 8-10, 2008	47%	38%
Survey USA	August 22-24, 2008	50%	43%
Bennett, Petts & Normington (D)	May 13-15, 2008	43%	36%

Connecticut

2nd District
Incumbent: Joe Courtney(D)

Winner-Joe Courtney (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Joe Courtney	Republican: Sean Sullivan
Connecticut Association of Realtors	September 8, 2008	52%	20%

4th District§
Incumbent: Chris Shays(R)

Winner-Jim Himes (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Jim Himes	Republican: Chris Shays
University of Connecticut	October 9-15, 2008	44%	44%
Survey USA	October 13-14, 2008	48%	45%
Sacred Heart University	September 22-25, 2008	31%	41%
Feldman Group (D)	September 17-18, 2008	45%	45%
Connecticut Association of Realtors	September 8, 2008	31%	52%

Delaware

At Large District
Incumbent: Mike Castle(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Karen Hartley-Nagel	Republican: Mike Castle
West Chester University	October 6-8, 2008	27%	66%
Fairleigh Dickinson University	September 17-21, 2008	28%	62%

Florida

8th District
Incumbent: Ric Keller(R)

Winner-Alan Grayson (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Alan Grayson	Republican: Ric Keller
Kitchens Group	September 3-6, 2008	44%	40%

9th District
Incumbent: Gus Bilirakis(R)

Winner-Gus Bilirakis (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Bill Mitchell	Republican: Gus Bilirakis
Momentum Analysis	September 20-22, 2008	25%	45%

10th District
Incumbent: Bill Young(R)

Winner-Bill Young (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Bob Hackworth	Republican: Bill Young
Anzalone Lizst	September 7-11, 2008	33%	50%

13th District
Incumbent: Vern Buchanan(R)

Winner-Vern Buchanan (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Christine Jennings	Republican: Vern Buchanan
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 20-22, 2008	34%	45%
Survey USA	September 30-October 1, 2008	33%	49%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 23-25, 2008	31%	43%
Feldman Group	September 22-23, 2008	40%	44%
Public Opinion Strategies	March 5-6, 2008	37%	53%

16th District
Incumbent: Tim Mahoney(D)

Winner-Tom Rooney (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Tim Mahoney	Republican: Tom Rooney
Tarrance Group	October 15-16, 2008	29%	55%
Tarrance Group	September 7-8, 2008	48%	41%

18th District
Incumbent: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen(R)

Winner-Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Annette Taddeo	Republican: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
Lake Research	October 8-21, 2008	41%	48%
Telemundo	September 27-October 1, 2008	35%	48%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 23-25, 2008	36%	53%
Bendixen & Associates	June 6-22, 2008	31%	58%

21st District
Incumbent: Lincoln Diaz-Balart(R)

Winner-Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Raul Martinez	Republican: Lincoln Diaz-Balart
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 20-23, 2008	44%	45%
Telemundo	October 2-8, 2008	43%	48%
Survey USA	August 24-26, 2008	48%	46%
Bendixen & Associates	June 6-22, 2008	37%	41%

24th District
Incumbent: Tom Feeney(R)

Winner-Suzanne Kosmas (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Suzanne Kosmas	Republican: Tom Feeney
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner	October 14-15, 2008	58%	35%
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner	October 2-8, 2008	58%	35%
Hamilton Group	September 11-14, 2008	42%	43%

25th District
Incumbent: Mario Diaz-Balart(R)

Winner-Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Joe Garcia	Republican: Mario Diaz-Balart
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 20-22, 2008	43%	46%
Hamilton Campaigns	October 8-9, 2008	42%	45%
Telemundo	September 27-October 1, 2008	41%	43%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 23-25, 2008	41%	45%
Bendixen & Associates	June 6-22, 2008	39%	44%

Idaho

1st District
Incumbent: Bill Sali(R)

Winner-Walt Minnick (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Walt Minnick	Republican: Bill Sali
Survey USA	October 18-19, 2008	51%	45%
Harstad Strategic Research	September 25-28, 2008	44%	38%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 17-18, 2008	35%	46%
Harstad Strategic Research	September 9-11, 2008	43%	38%

Illinois

6th District
Incumbent: Peter Roskam(R)

Winner-Peter Roskam (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Jill Morgenthaler	Republican: Peter Roskam
Public Opinion Strategies	July 20-22, 2008	29%	59%

10th District
Incumbent: Mark Kirk(R)

Winner-Mark Kirk (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Dan Seals	Republican: Mark Kirk
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 20-22, 2008	49%	43%
Bennett, Petts & Normington	October 15-16, 2008	41%	47%
Survey USA	October 4-5, 2008	52%	44%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 30-October 1, 2008	38%	44%
McLaughlin & Associates	September 10-11, 2008	29%	51%
Global Strategy Group	August 17-19, 2008	39%	46%
McLaughlin & Associates	June 9, 2008	32%	53%
McLaughlin & Associates	March 14-16, 2008	29%	50%
Garin-Hart-Yang	February 7-8, 2008	39%	46%

11th District
Incumbent: Jerry Weller(R)-retiring

Winner-Debbie Halvorson (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Debbie Halvorson	Republican: Martin Ozinga	Green: Jason Wallace
Survey USA	October 20-21, 2008	50%	37%
Bennett, Petts & Normington	October 15-16, 2008	50%	29%
Anzalone Liszt (D)	October 10-13, 2008	48%	29%	5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	September 17-18, 2008	38%	36%
Anzalone Liszt (D)	September 14-16, 2008	43%	35%	6%
Anzalone-Liszt (D)	May 18-22, 2008	43%	32%	6%

18th District
Incumbent: Ray LaHood(R)-retiring

Winner-Aaron Schock (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Colleen Callahan	Republican: Aaron Schock
Public Opinion Strategies	August 18-20, 2008	27%	56%

Indiana

2nd District
Incumbent: Joe Donnelly(D)

Winner-Joe Donnelly (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Joe Donnelly	Republican: Luke Puckett
South Bend Tribune/ Research 2000	September 29-30, 2008	53%	35%

3rd District
Incumbent: Mark Souder(R)

Winner-Mark Souder (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Mike Montagano	Republican: Mark Souder
Howey Gauge	October 23-24, 2008	44%	41%
Research 2000	October 16-18, 2008	40%	45%
Winston Group	October 15-16, 2008	41%	50%
Cooper and Secrest	October 6-7, 2008	39%	44%
Cooper and Secrest	April 24-27, 2008	28%	55%

4th District
Incumbent: Steve Buyer(R)

Winner-Steve Buyer (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Nels Ackerson	Republican: Steve Buyer
Journal & Courier	September 12-14, 2008	36%	38%

7th District
Incumbent: André Carson(D)

Winner-André Carson (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: André Carson	Republican: Gabrielle Campo
Research 2000/WISH-TV	October 24-28, 2008	53%	38%
Research 2000/WISH-TV	September 29-October 3, 2008	51%	35%

9th District
Incumbent: Baron Hill(D)

Winner-Baron Hill (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Baron Hill	Republican: Mike Sodrel
Survey USA	October 22-23, 2008	54%	39%
Survey USA	October 4-5, 2008	53%	38%
Research 2000/WISH-TV	September 29-October 3, 2008	49%	37%
Survey USA	September 8-10, 2008	50%	39%
Survey USA	July 28-30, 2008	49%	42%
Survey USA	June 16-18, 2008	51%	40%

Iowa

4th District
Incumbent: Tom Latham(R)

Winner-Tom Latham (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Becky Greenwald	Republican: Tom Latham
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 20-22, 2008	42%	47%

Kansas

1st District
Incumbent: Jerry Moran(R)

Winner-Jerry Moran (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: James Bordonaro	Republican: Jerry Moran
Survey USA	August 17-19, 2008	13%	77%

2nd District§
Incumbent: Nancy Boyda(D)

Winner-Lynn Jenkins (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Nancy Boyda	Republican: Lynn Jenkins
Survey USA	August 19-21, 2008	50%	43%
Anzalone Lizst	May 12-15, 2008	57%	27%

4th District
Incumbent: Todd Tiahrt(R)

Winner-Todd Tiahrt (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Donald Betts	Republican: Todd Tiahrt
Survey USA	October 20-21, 2008	29%	62%
Survey USA	August 17-19, 2008	30%	61%

Kentucky

2nd District
Incumbent: Ron Lewis(R)-retiring

Winner-Brett Guthrie (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: David Boswell	Republican: Brett Guthrie
Survey USA	October 27-28, 2008	43%	53%
Survey USA	October 21-22, 2008	42%	51%
Survey USA	October 15-16, 2008	42%	51%
Survey USA	September 24-25, 2008	43%	49%
Garin-Hart-Yang	August 23-25, 2008	41%	33%
Survey USA	June 27-29, 2008	47%	44%

3rd District
Incumbent: John Yarmuth(D)

Winner-John Yarmuth (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: John Yarmuth	Republican: Anne Northup
Survey USA	October 21-22, 2008	57%	41%
Survey USA	October 14-15, 2008	57%	41%
Survey USA	September 5-7, 2008	53%	45%
Survey USA	July 18-20, 2008	53%	43%
Survey USA	June 6-8, 2008	57%	40%
Voter/Consumer Research	June 4-8, 2008	51%	43%

4th District
Incumbent: Geoff Davis(R)

Winner-Geoff Davis (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Michael Kelley	Republican: Geoff Davis
Survey USA	October 26- October 27, 2008	37%	58%
Survey USA	September 30- October 1, 2008	36%	58%
Survey USA	June 28-30, 2008	41%	54%

Louisiana

4th District§
Incumbent: Jim McCrery(R) - Retiring

Winner-John Fleming (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Paul Carmouche	Republican: John Fleming	Independent: Chester "Catfish" Kelley
Survey USA	November 17-18,2008	45%	47%	3%

6th District§
Incumbent: Don Cazayoux(D)

Winner-Bill Cassidy (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Don Cazayoux	Republican: Bill Cassidy	Independent: Michael Jackson
Bennett, Petts & Normington	October 8-9, 2008	46%	29%	9%
Anzalone Lizst	September 17-21, 2008	48%	32%	9%

Maine

1st District
Incumbent: Tom Allen(D)-Retiring

Winner-Chellie Pingree (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Chellie Pingree	Republican: Charlie Summers
Moore Information	September 21-22, 2008	44%	33%

Maryland

1st District
Incumbent: Wayne Gilchrest(R)-Defeated in Primary

Winner-Frank Kratovil (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Frank Kratovil	Republican: Andy Harris
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 20-22, 2008	40%	44%
Garin, Hart, & Yang	October 6, 2008	43%	41%
Grove Insight	September 9-12, 2008	36%	36%
Finkelstein & Associates	July 15, 2008	28%	44%
Garin, Hart, & Yang	May 23-24, 2008	34%	43%
Moore Information	January 15-16, 2008	22%	37%

Michigan

7th District§
Incumbent: Tim Walberg(R)

Winner-Mark Schauer (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Mark Schauer	Republican: Tim Walberg
Beneson Strategy Group	October 6-7, 2008	43%	35%
Myers Research & Strategic Services	October 5-6, 2008	46%	36%
Myers Research & Strategic Services	September 23-24, 2008	42%	36%
EPIC-MRA	August 20-22, 2008	40%	43%
National Research	July 8-9, 2008	31%	47%
Myers Research & Strategic Services	May 8-15, 2008	37%	40%
EPIC-MRA	February 27-March 2, 2008	40%	51%

9th District§
Incumbent: Joe Knollenberg(R)

Winner-Gary Peters (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Gary Peters	Republican: Joe Knollenberg
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner	October 6-7, 2008	43%	40%
Mitchell Research	September 30-October 2, 2008	43%	43%
Grove Insight	August 17-19, 2008	41%	37%

Minnesota

1st District
Incumbent: Tim Walz(D)

Winner-Tim Walz (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Tim Walz	Republican: Brian Davis
Tarrance Group	September 17-18, 2008	50%	32%
Beneson Strategy Group	May 17-19, 2008	60%	20%

3rd District§
Incumbent: Jim Ramstad(R)-Retiring

Winner-Erik Paulsen (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Ashwin Madia	Republican: Erik Paulsen
Survey USA	October 26-27, 2008	44%	45%
Survey USA	October 6-7, 2008	46%	43%
Bennett, Petts & Normington	September 29-30, 2008	44%	39%
Survey USA	August 26-August 28, 2008	41%	44%
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner	February 27-March 2, 2008	40%	43%

6th District
Incumbent: Michele Bachmann(R)

Winner-Michele Bachmann (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Elwyn Tinklenberg	Republican: Michele Bachmann
University of Minnesota/ Minnesota Public Radio/ University of Connecticut	October 21-23, 2008	45%	43%
Survey USA	October 21-22, 2008	47%	44%
Public Opinion Strategies	October 12-13, 2008	33%	44%
Grove Insight	October 10-12, 2008	38%	42%

Mississippi

1st District
Incumbent: Travis Childers(D)

Winner-Travis Childers (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Travis Childers	Republican: Greg Davis
Anzalone Lizst	September 7-10, 2008	51%	39%

Missouri

6th District
Incumbent: Sam Graves(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Kay Barnes	Republican: Sam Graves
Survey USA	October 27-28, 2008	36%	54%
Survey USA	October 13-14, 2008	40%	51%
Survey USA	September 17-18, 2008	42%	51%
Survey USA	July 30-31, 2008	44%	48%
Survey USA	May 16-18, 2008	39%	49%

9th District
Incumbent: Kenny Hulshof(R)-retiring

Source	Date	Democrat: Judy Baker	Republican: Blaine Luetkemeyer
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 20-22, 2008	42%	47%
Global Strategy Group	October 5-7, 2008	40%	36%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 17-18, 2008	40%	49%
Survey USA	September 1-2, 2008	38%	50%
Momentum Analysis	August 12-14, 2008	41%	39%

Montana

At Large District
Incumbent: Denny Rehberg(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: John Driscoll	Republican: Denny Rehberg
Public Policy Polling	November 2, 2008	35%	60%

Nebraska

2nd District
Incumbent: Lee Terry(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Jim Esch	Republican: Lee Terry
Anzalone Liszt	October 13-15, 2008	46%	47%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 6-8, 2008	39%	49%
Anzalone Liszt	July 27-August 2, 2008	38%	47%

Nevada

2nd District
Incumbent: Dean Heller(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Jill Derby	Republican: Dean Heller
Research 2000	October 3-6, 2008	41%	48%
Research 2000	August 18-20, 2008	42%	47%
Mason Dixon	June 9-11, 2008	39%	53%

3rd District§
Incumbent: Jon Porter(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Dina Titus	Republican: Jon Porter
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 20-22, 2008	47%	45%
Public Opinion Strategies	September 23-24, 2008	39%	41%
Anzalone Lizst	September 21-24, 2008	46%	39%
Anzalone Liszt	July 23-28, 2008	50%	43%
Mason Dixon	June 9-11, 2008	42%	45%

New Hampshire

1st District§
Incumbent: Carol Shea-Porter(D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Carol Shea-Porter	Republican: Jeb Bradley
University of New Hampshire	October 26-28, 2008	44%	42%
Boston Globe/ University of New Hampshire	October 18-22, 2008	44%	39%
Concord Monitor/Research 2000	October 17-19, 2008	48%	43%
Concord Monitor/Research 2000	October 4-5, 2008	48%	43%
Survey USA	October 4-5, 2008	50%	41%
St. Anselm College	September 25-30, 2008	35%	42%
Concord Monitor/Research 2000	September 22-24, 2008	44%	43%
University of New Hampshire	September 14-21, 2008	42%	45%
University of New Hampshire	July 11-20, 2008	40%	46%
University of New Hampshire	April 25-30, 2008	39%	45%

2nd District
Incumbent: Paul Hodes(D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Paul Hodes	Republican: Jennifer Horn
Boston Globe/ University of New Hampshire	October 18-22, 2008	51%	25%
Concord Monitor/Research 2000	October 17-19, 2008	49%	35%
Concord Monitor/Research 2000	October 4-5, 2008	49%	35%
St. Anselm College	September 25-30, 2008	35%	18%
Concord Monitor/Research 2000	September 22-24, 2008	47%	34%
University of New Hampshire	September 14-21, 2008	38%	26%
Anzalone Lizst	September 14-18, 2008	50%	32%
Public Opinion Strategies	September 16-17, 2008	43%	39%
University of New Hampshire	July 11-20, 2008	43%	23%
University of New Hampshire	April 25-30, 2008	52%	25%

New Jersey

1st District
Incumbent: Rob Andrews(D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Rob Andrews	Republican: Dale Glading
Zogby International	September 18-20, 2008	73%	16%

2nd District
Incumbent: Frank LoBiondo(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Tom Kurkowski	Republican: Frank LoBiondo
Zogby International	September 18-20, 2008	26%	62%

3rd District§
Incumbent: H. James Saxton(R)- Retiring

Source	Date	Democrat: Jon Adler	Republican: Chris Myers
Grove Insight	October 15-16, 2008	42%	34%
Grove Insight	October 2-3, 2008	38%	34%
Monmouth University	September 30-October 2, 2008	41%	44%
Zogby International	September 18-20, 2008	37%	39%
McLaughlin & Associates	September 8-9, 2008	29%	33%

5th District
Incumbent: Scott Garrett(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Dennis Shulman	Republican: Scott Garrett
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 20-22, 2008	40%	47%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 17-18, 2008	34%	49%

7th District§
Incumbent: Mike Ferguson(R)- Retiring

Source	Date	Democrat: Linda Stender	Republican: Leonard Lance
Benenson Strategy Group	October 8-9, 2008	40%	31%
Monmouth University	September 30-October 2, 2008	39%	43%
Anzalone Lizst	August 20-25, 2008	36%	33%
National Research	June 24-25, 2008	35%	42%

New Mexico

1st District§
Incumbent: Heather Wilson(R)- Retiring

Source	Date	Democrat: Martin Heinrich	Republican: Darren White
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner	September 22-23, 2008	50%	46%
Survey USA	August 26-28, 2008	51%	46%
Public Opinion Strategies	July 22-23, 2008	41%	47%
Greenberg, Quinlan & Rosner	June 29-July 2, 2008	47%	44%
Public Opinion Strategies	October 8-9, 2007	33%	51%

2nd District
Incumbent: Steve Pearce(R)- Retiring

Source	Date	Democrat: Harry Teague	Republican: Ed Tinsley
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 30-October 1, 2008	47%	43%
Hamilton Campaigns	September 2-5, 2008	46%	41%

New York

25th District
Incumbent: James Walsh(R)-Retiring

Source	Date	Democrat: Dan Maffei	Republican: Dale Sweetland
Kiley & Company	October 2-3, 2008	49%	31%
Jeff Stonecash	April 26-27, 2008	37%	36%

26th District
Incumbent: Tom Reynolds(R)-Retiring

Source	Date	Democrat: Alice Kryzan	Republican: Christopher Lee
Survey USA	October 28-29, 2008	34%	48%
Survey USA	September 24-25, 2008	37%	48%
Brilliant Corners	September 15-17, 2008	39%	29%

29th District§
Incumbent: Randy Kuhl(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Eric Massa	Republican: Randy Kuhl
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 7-8, 2008	49%	42%
Benenson Strategy Group	October 6, 2008	47%	42%
Survey USA	October 5, 2008	51%	44%
McLaughlin & Associates	January 27-28, 2008	26%	46%

North Carolina

8th District§
Incumbent: Robin Hayes(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Larry Kissell	Republican: Robin Hayes
Survey USA	October 4-5, 2008	49%	41%
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner	September 28-29, 2008	54%	43%
Public Opinion Strategies	September 23-25, 2008	46%	43%
Public Policy Polling	August 25-27, 2008	39%	44%
Public Opinion Strategies	August 4-5, 2008	40%	50%
Public Policy Polling	July 2-5, 2008	36%	43%
Anzalone Liszt	June 8-14, 2008	45%	43%
Service Employees International Union/ Center for American Progress/ Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner	November 13-15, 2007	49%	47%
Anzalone Liszt	June 16-20, 2007	43%	45%

10th District
Incumbent: Patrick McHenry(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Daniel Johnson	Republican: Patrick McHenry
Public Policy Polling	June 21-22, 2008	38%	49%

Ohio

1st District§
Incumbent: Steve Chabot(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Steve Driehaus	Republican: Steve Chabot
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 30-October 1, 2008	46%	44%
Survey USA	September 19-21, 2008	44%	46%
Public Opinion Strategies	June 30-July 2, 2008	37%	50%

2nd District
Incumbent: Jean Schmidt(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Victoria Wulsin	Republican: Jean Schmidt
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 30-October 1, 2008	39%	46%
Momentum Analysis	September 29-30, 2008	36%	37%
Survey USA	September 19-21, 2008	40%	48%
Tarrance Group	September 8-9, 2008	36%	52%
Momentum Analysis	June 24-26, 2008	33%	41%
Tarrance Group	March 11-12, 2008	33%	51%

7th District
Incumbent: Dave Hobson(R)-retiring

Source	Date	Democrat: Sharen Neuhardt	Republican: Steve Austria
Tarrance Group	October 5-6, 2008	32%	56%
Cooper and Secrest	May 25-June 2, 2008	35%	41%

15th District§
Incumbent: Deborah Pryce(R)-retiring

Source	Date	Democrat: Mary Jo Kilroy	Republican: Steve Stivers
Survey USA	October 25-26, 2008	47%	41%
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner	September 30-October 1, 2008	44%	36%
Survey USA	September 19-21, 2008	47%	42%
Survey USA	August 2-4, 2008	47%	44%
Beneson Strategy Group	May 20-22, 2008	47%	37%

16th District§
Incumbent: Ralph Regula(R)-retiring

Source	Date	Democrat: John Boccieri	Republican: Kurt Schuring
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 30-October 1, 2008	48%	38%
Survey USA	September 19-21, 2008	49%	41%
Tarrance Group	July 8-9, 2008	34%	40%

Oregon

5th District
Incumbent: Darlene Hooley(D)-retiring

Source	Date	Democrat: Kurt Schrader	Republican: Mike Erickson
SurveyUSA	October 27–October 28, 2008	55%	31%
SurveyUSA	October 13–October 14, 2008	51%	38%

Pennsylvania

3rd District§
Incumbent: Phil English(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Kathy Dahlkemper	Republican: Phil English
Public Opinion Strategies	October 22-23, 2008	45%	47%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 6-8, 2008	48%	41%
Survey USA	September 26-28, 2008	49%	45%
Momentum Analysis	July 8-10, 2008	41%	40%

4th District
Incumbent: Jason Altmire(D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Jason Altmire	Republican: Melissa Hart
Anzalone Liszt	October 6-9, 2008	53%	41%
Survey USA	October 5, 2008	54%	42%
Anzalone-Liszt	February 14, 2008	56%	40%

6th District
Incumbent: Jim Gerlach(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Bob Roggio	Republican: Jim Gerlach
Public Opinion Strategies	August 19-21, 2008	28%	57%
Beneson Strategy Group	June 21-24, 2008	32%	49%

10th District
Incumbent: Chris Carney(D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Chris Carney	Republican: Chris Hacket
Lycoming College	October 19-23, 2008	50%	35%
Momentum Analysis	September 29-October 1, 2008	50%	36%
Lycoming College	September 21-25, 2008	46%	36%
Survey USA	August 23-25, 2008	49%	45%

11th District§
Incumbent: Paul Kanjorski(D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Paul Kanjorski	Republican: Lou Barletta
Survey USA	November 2, 2008	45%	51%
Franklin & Marshall College	October 8-12, 2008	35%	40%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 6-8, 2008	39%	43%
Grove Insight	October 5-6, 2008	47%	39%
Susquehanna Polling & Research	October 2, 2008	47%	39%
Grove Insight	September 14-15, 2008	48%	39%
Franklin & Marshall College	September 9-14, 2008	35%	44%
Susquehanna Polling & Research	July 27-29, 2008	41%	45%
Susquehanna Polling & Research	March 27-29, 2008	42%	47%

12th District
Incumbent: Jack Murtha(D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Jack Murtha	Republican: William Russell
Pittsburgh Tribune-Review/ Susquehanna Polling & Research	October 21, 2008	46%	41%

South Carolina

1st District
Incumbent: Henry Brown(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Linda Ketner	Republican: Henry Brown
Survey USA	October 25-26, 2008	45%	50%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 20-22, 2008	37%	48%

South Dakota

At Large District
Incumbent: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin(D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin	Republican: Chris Lein
Mason Dixon	October 13-15, 2008	62%	29%

Tennessee

7th District
Incumbent: Marsha Blackburn(R)

Source	Date	Republican: Tom Leatherwood	Republican: Marsha Blackburn
Ethridge & Associates	June 28-29, 2008	37%	48%

Texas

7th District
Incumbent: John Culberson (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Michael Skelly	Republican: John Culberson
Zogby International	October 20-22, 2008	41%	48%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 7-8, 2008	40%	48%
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner	September 7-9, 2008	37%	44%
IVR Polls	April 8, 2008	39%	57%
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner	December 5-12, 2007	33%	52%

10th District
Incumbent: Mike McCaul (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Larry Joe Doherty	Republican: Mike McCaul
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 20-22, 2008	42%	46%
Goodwin, Simon & Victoria	September 28-30, 2008	38%	43%
IVR	June 2, 2008	46%	52%
Goodwin, Simon & Victoria	May 27-31, 2008	34%	43%

22nd District§
Incumbent: Nick Lampson (D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Nick Lampson	Republican: Pete Olson
Zogby International	October 20-22, 2008	36%	53%

32nd District
Incumbent: Pete Sessions (R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Eric Roberson	Republican: Pete Sessions
IVR Polls	June 4, 2008	43%	52%

Utah

1st District
Incumbent: Rob Bishop(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Morgan Bowen	Republican: Rob Bishop
Dan Jones & Associates/ Deseret News	September 8-11, 2008	21%	62%
Dan Jones & Associates/ Deseret News	May 13-19, 2008	19%	58%

2nd District
Incumbent: Jim Matheson(D)

Source	Date	Democrat: James Matheson	Republican: Bill Dew
Dan Jones & Associates/ Deseret News	September 8-11, 2008	62%	27%
Dan Jones & Associates/ Deseret News	May 13-19, 2008	67%	20%

3rd District
Incumbent: Chris Cannon(R) - defeated in primary

Source	Date	Democrat: Benion Spencer	Republican: Jason Chaffetz
Dan Jones & Associates/ Deseret News	September 8-11, 2008	18%	60%
Dan Jones & Associates/ Deseret News	May 13-19, 2008	18%	46%

Virginia

2nd District
Incumbent: Thelma Drake(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Glenn Nye	Republican: Thelma Drake
Bennett, Petts & Normington	October 14-15, 2008	42%	47%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 7-8, 2008	37%	51%
Bennett, Petts & Normington	September 21-22, 2008	40%	45%
Bennett, Petts & Normington	May 6-8, 2008	32%	48%

5th District
Incumbent: Virgil Goode(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Tom Perriello	Republican: Virgil Goode	Green: Sherman Wichter
Survey USA	November 2, 2008	47%	50%
Beneson Strategy Group (D)	October 7-9, 2008	40%	48%
Survey USA	October 6-7, 2008	42%	55%
Survey USA	August 10-12, 2008	30%	64%	1%

6th District
Incumbent: Bob Goodlatte(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Sam Rasoul	Republican: Bob Goodlatte	Independent: Janice Lee Allen
Survey USA	August 11-13, 2008	30%	59%	3%

11th District
Incumbent: Tom Davis(R)-retiring

Source	Date	Democrat: Gerry Connolly	Republican: Keith Fimian
Lake Research Partners	July 10-14, 2008	52%	21%

Washington

2nd District
Incumbent: Rick Larsen(D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Rick Larsen	Republican: Rick Bart
Survey USA	July 27-29, 2008	58%	37%
Survey USA	June 16-17, 2008	56%	38%

8th District§
Incumbent: Dave Reichert(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Darcy Burner	Republican: Dave Reichert
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 21-23, 2008	46%	46%
Survey USA	October 20-21, 2008	50%	46%
Bennett, Petts & Normington (D)	October 8-9, 2008	49%	44%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 5-7, 2008	41%	49%
Lake Research Partners	September 23-25, 2008	45%	48%
Survey USA	September 7-9, 2008	44%	54%
Survey USA	July 27-29, 2008	44%	50%
Survey USA	June 16-17, 2008	45%	51%

West Virginia

2nd District
Incumbent: Shelley Moore Capito(R)

Source	Date	Democrat: Ann Barth	Republican: Shelley Moore Capito
Research 2000/Daily Kos	October 6-8, 2008	39%	53%

Wisconsin

8th District
Incumbent: Steve Kagen(D)

Source	Date	Democrat: Steve Kagen	Republican: John Gard
Survey USA	October 4-5, 2008	54%	43%
Public Opinion Strategies	September 17-18, 2008	46%	45%
Public Opinion Strategies	July 8-9, 2008	46%	42%

Wyoming

At Large District§
Incumbent: Barbara Cubin(R)-Retiring

Source	Date	Democrat: Gary Trauner	Republican: Cynthia Lummis
Survey USA	October 18-19, 2008	44%	50%
Mason Dixon	October 13-14, 2008	44%	43%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	September 22-24, 2008	42%	42%
Research 2000/Daily Kos	May 20-21, 2008	44%	41%
Mason Dixon/ Casper Star Tribune	January 18-21, 2008	41%	40%

Notes

§- Indicates a district that is included in the Seat to Watch section

Seats to Watch

House Predictions

110th Congress: D-236, R-199
111th Congressional Projection: D-237, R-175, TCTC-23

Safe Republican AL-3 AR-1 AZ-2 CA-17 CO-2 DE-1 FL-10 GA-7 IA-1 ID-1 IL-3 IN-3 KS-2 KY-3 LA-1 MD-1 MI-7 MO-3 MS-1 MT-1 NE-2 NJ-3 NY-2 NC-4 OH-5 OK-4 OR-2 PA-4 SC-2 TN-4 TX-17 UT-2 VA-4 WA-2 WI-3 TOTAL-126

Republican Favored AL-1 CA-4 FL-1 IA-1 IL-3 LA-2 MN-2 NJ-1 NC-1 OH-2 PA-3 SC-1 TX-2 VA-2 TOTAL-26

Leans Republican AL-1 AZ-1 CA-1 FL-4 ID-1 IL-1 IN-1 KY-1 LA-1 MD-1 MO-2 NE-1 NM-1 NV-1 NY-2 OH-1 SC-1 VA-1 WV-1 WY-1 TOTAL-25

Leans Democrat AK-1 AZ-3 CA-1 CT-1 GA-1 IL-1 KY-1 MS-1 NY-2 PA-2 TX-1 VA-1 WI-1 TOTAL-18

Democrat Favored CT-1 FL-1 GA-1 IL-2 IN-1 KS-1 ME-1 MN-1 NH-1 NY-3 OH-1 OR-5 PA-1 TOTAL-15

Safe Democrat AL-1 AR-3 AZ-2 CA-33 CO-4 CT-2 FL-7 GA-4 HI-2 IA-3 IL-9 IN-4 KY-1 LA-2 MA-10 MD-6 ME-1 MI-6 MN-4 MO-4 MS-2 NJ-7 NM-1 NV-1 NY-20 NC-7 ND-1 OH-6 OK-1 OR-1 OR-3 OR-4 PA-7 RI-2 SC-2 SD-1 TN-5 TX-11 UT-1 VA-3 VT-1 WA-6 WI-4 WV-2 TOTAL-202

External links

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